What's in store for stretch run

OPINION

By Tony DeMarco

NBCSports.com contributor

updated 1:30 a.m. ET Aug. 26, 2011

Tony DeMarco

With the MLB calendar pushed up a bit this season, the final day of the regular season is Wednesday, Sept. 28, which means we're already in the final five weeks ? not a minute too soon to examine the contenders' remaining schedules:

The three most comfortable leads belong to the surging Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central (9 1/2 games through Thursday), the sneaky-scary Atlanta Braves in the NL wildcard (9 1/2 games), and the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East (6 games). Those appear to be safe, so we'll concentrate on the other remaining races:

AL East/wildcard
One of the stronger arguments for adding two wildcard teams to the playoff mix is what's unfolding here. With little difference between winning the division and the wildcard, the only drama left is whom the Red Sox and Yankees will be matched against in the division-series round.

But under the expanded playoffs proposal currently being discussed as part of the next Basic Agreement, the two wild cards in each league would play a one- or three-game mini-series while the division champions sit and wait -- adding significant value to winning the division, and keeping division-title races pure. For the record (and those inclined to conspiracy thinking), there is an ALDS pairings set that would appear to be most-advantageous to both Beasts of the East:

Boston is 5-1 against Detroit and 3-4 against Texas (with three games remaining).

New York is 7-2 against Texas and 3-4 against Detroit. The trick, of course, will be figuring whether the Tigers or Rangers will finish with a better record. The Rangers currently lead that race by only two games.

Down the stretch, the Red Sox face an easier task than the Yankees. They have a 19 home/13 road spill to the Yankees' 13/20. New York also has two make-up games, one as part of a Saturday double-header in a now-five-game series in Baltimore this weekend; the other on Sept. 19, costing them their last previously scheduled off-day.

The last two Red Sox-Yankees showdowns are Aug. 30-Sept. 1 at Fenway Park and Sept. 23-25 at Yankee Stadium.

And the other part of the argument for adding a second wildcard is the Rays currently sitting 11 games over .500, but needing a near-miracle to get in. With the added wildcard, Joe Maddon's team would be in a dogfight with the AL West runner-up, and nobody would have a problem with either team making the playoffs as potential 88-90-win teams.

AL West
The Angels are in Arlington this weekend for the first of two remaining showdowns with the Rangers, and a measure of how tight the race has become is the fact that Mike Scioscia's team could leave town in first place.

The Rangers' remaining schedule is divided into three distinct parts. This weekend marks the onset of a very tough four-series, 12-game stretch: vs. Angels, vs. Rays, at Red Sox, at Rays. The next five-series, 15-game stretch should be easier: vs. A's, vs. Indians, at Mariners, at A's, vs. Mariners. Finally, Texas will close with a three-game series in Anaheim.

The Angels' schedule looks very little like the Rangers' ? and is easier in terms of games against teams currently with winning records. Included is a nine-game homestand Sept. 2-11 (Twins, Mariners and Yankees), followed by a three-city, 10-game trip to Oakland, Baltimore and Toronto.

Expect all eyes to be on that final series against Texas, Sept-26-28.

AL Central
Barring an unexpected collapse, the Tigers' lead should be safe. Their 16 home/15 road split includes home-and-home series against the White Sox and Indians (12 games), plus six games apiece against Kansas City and Minnesota, and four apiece against Oakland and Baltimore. So believe it or not, there isn't a team that currently has a winning record remaining on Tigers' schedule.

The White Sox and Indians will face each other eight more times, including a Sept. 20 double-header that includes a makeup game. The Tribe also has a Sept. 19 makeup home game against Seattle, leaving them only one off day in September. Their killer remaining stretch could be a 10-game trip to Chicago, Texas and Minnesota Sept. 8-18.

The White Sox's key 14-game stretch begins Sept. 2 ? three at Detroit, four at Minnesota, then home for four against Cleveland and three against Detroit.

NL West
The Diamondbacks and Giants have very similar remaining schedules in terms of strength and home/road split, but differ greatly in terms of timing. Arizona has 19 home and 12 road games left; San Francisco 18 and 13. Their home-and-home series are set for Sept. 2-4 (AT&T Park) and Sept. 23-25 (Chase Field).

Both have home-and-home series left with the Rockies and Dodgers. The Giants also play the Padres home-and-home, while the Diamondbacks have 10 games with San Diego (seven home, three away). The Diamondbacks' only non-NL West series is at home against Pittsburgh (Sept. 19-21), while the Giants just started a four-game home series with Houston to be followed by a three-game series against Chicago.

Here's the big difference: The Giants play 15 of their next 18 at home before a 10-game road swing through Colorado, Los Angeles and Arizona; Arizona faces a stretch of 12 of 16 on the road Sept. 2-18 before finishing with home series against Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Los Angeles. So if the Giants are going to climb back on top, you'd think it needs to happen in the next three weeks.

Meanwhile, the Rockies remain on the fringe, mostly because of the relative recent struggles of the top two contenders. But Colorado's schedule is a bit more difficult than Arizona's and San Francisco's ? with series against Cincinnati and Milwaukee, and an unfavorable (13/18) home/road split.

And as much as the national talking heads keep referring to a penchant for strong finishes, how soon they forget last season, when the Rockies lost 13 of their last 14 games when they were in position to win the division.

? 2011 NBC Sports.com? Reprints

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Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/44275398/ns/sports-baseball/

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